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The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, extending a two-month softening. Current business assessments turned negative, and expectations for business and employment weakened; the survey also recorded higher inflation expectations and increased expectations of rising interest rates.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, down from 88.6 in August, as consumers became more pessimistic about current business conditions and the outlook for the next six months. The decline matters to retailers and other businesses because the survey tracks consumers’ assessments of economic conditions and expectations that can shape household decisions.
The index’s Present Situation Index dropped 7.9 points to 109.3, reflecting weaker assessments of current business and labor market conditions. Consumers’ net assessment of business conditions—the share describing them as good minus the share describing them as bad—fell 3.4 percentage points to minus 1.9%. The Conference Board said the shift was largely driven by more respondents describing business conditions as bad. This measure turned negative for the first time since September 2024.
The Expectations Index fell 5.9 points to 63.6, its third consecutive monthly decline. Its three components all weakened: net expectations for business conditions fell 3.2 percentage points to minus 9.5%, while expectations for labor market conditions declined 3.1 points to minus 14.4%. Net expectations for household income dropped 3 points to 2.5%, remaining positive.
Views of current employment conditions softened too. The labor market differential—the share saying jobs are plentiful minus the share saying jobs are hard to get—fell 2.5 percentage points to plus 1.7%. Consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations rose 0.3 points to 6.1% and 5.1%, respectively. The share expecting interest rates to rise over the next year increased 5.2 points to 68.4%.
Weaker Views May Affect Spending
The September results show a broad weakening in consumers’ reported outlook, including views of business conditions, employment and household income. For businesses that depend on household purchases, a less confident consumer base can make demand harder to anticipate. The survey does not measure actual spending, however, and its results alone do not establish that consumers will reduce purchases.
Expectations for income remained positive, but the measure declined from the previous month. At the same time, higher inflation expectations and a larger share expecting interest rates to rise point to concerns households may weigh when making financial decisions. These are survey responses, not forecasts of what inflation or interest rates will do.
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Three Months of Weaker Expectations
The September report follows two prior months of softening in the overall index. The Expectations Index has now fallen for three consecutive months, according to The Conference Board. The survey’s preliminary results cover responses collected from September 1 through September 23.
That survey period included a federal funds rate hike and ongoing geopolitical tensions, the report said. The source does not quantify how much either development affected responses, so they are relevant timing context rather than established causes of the decline. On a six-month moving-average basis, confidence trended downward across all age groups and nearly all income groups. Higher-income groups generally remained more optimistic, though households earning $125,000 to $149,000 recorded the largest six-month decline.
Causes and Spending Effects Remain Open
The report does not establish what caused the decline or how much the rate hike and geopolitical tensions influenced survey responses. It also does not show whether weaker confidence has translated into lower consumer spending. The figures are preliminary results for a survey conducted September 1-23; the source material does not provide a later revision or a detailed breakdown of response counts.
Watch for Updated Confidence Data
The next useful evidence will be subsequent consumer confidence readings and independent data on household spending, employment and prices. Those measures can show whether September’s survey decline persists and whether it corresponds with changes in consumer behavior. The source report does not specify a date for the next index release.
Key Questions
How much did consumer confidence fall in September?
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points, from 88.6 in August to 81.9 in September.
Which part of the index declined the most?
The Present Situation Index fell 7.9 points to 109.3. The Expectations Index dropped 5.9 points to 63.6, marking its third consecutive monthly decline.
Did consumers expect their incomes to fall?
No. Net expectations for household income remained positive at 2.5%, though the measure fell 3 percentage points in September.
What does the report say about inflation expectations?
Consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectation rose 0.3 percentage points to 6.1%, while the median rose by the same amount to 5.1%.
Source: rss
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