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The National Association of Home Builders’ state projections show remodeling spending averaged 0.0% growth in the second quarter of 2026. Spending declined in 26 states and rose in 24, while only North Carolina and Illinois among the 10 largest remodeling markets recorded growth. The report cites construction costs and weak consumer sentiment as pressures, while describing longer-term demand supports.
Remodeling spending averaged 0.0% growth across the states in the second quarter of 2026, according to the National Association of Home Builders’ State Projections of Remodeling, as activity held flat amid a wider housing slowdown. Spending fell in 26 states and increased in 24, with only North Carolina and Illinois among the 10 states holding the largest remodeling market shares posting growth.
The NAHB’s State Projections of Remodeling (SPR) reports quarterly estimates of remodeling spending, market share and spending changes for each state. Its second-quarter results were close to evenly divided between states with declines and those with gains; the average growth rate across all states was 0.0%. The report does not describe this as a uniform outcome: individual states moved in different directions.
NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz said the flat results aligned with the association’s forecast for remodeling spending in 2026. He said growth in the quarter was concentrated in smaller states. Among the 10 states with the biggest market shares, North Carolina and Illinois were the only ones with reported growth.
The SPR estimates are generated using a proprietary NAHB statistical model. The model combines national quarterly home-improvement spending data, multiple state-level indicators and the association’s annual state remodeling forecast. The figures are estimates produced by that methodology, rather than a simple count of completed remodeling projects.
Flat Spending Leaves Markets Divided
The state split gives contractors, suppliers and retailers a more specific view than the national average alone. An average of 0.0% growth can coexist with local increases and declines, so the national figure does not mean every remodeling business faced the same conditions. The limited growth among the largest state markets may matter to businesses whose sales depend on higher-volume regions.
For homeowners, the report points to a market in which spending is not broadly accelerating, even as demand for particular projects may persist. NAHB remodelers chairman Elliott Pike said rising construction costs and weak consumer sentiment are weighing on projects and keeping spending flat. Those factors can affect whether owners proceed with work and how much they spend, although the report does not quantify their separate effects.
The sector remains substantial in the residential construction industry. The report says remodeling represented a growing share of residential construction by both firm count and total construction spending. That longer-term position does not remove the near-term concern: the latest state estimates show little average growth while the broader housing market is slowing.
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How NAHB Tracks State Remodeling
The State Projections of Remodeling is a quarterly, state-by-state series intended to track remodeling spending and each state’s share of that activity. NAHB combines national spending data with state indicators and its annual forecast to produce the estimates. The source report provides the Q2 2026 findings but does not supply state-by-state dollar totals or detailed growth rates in the material provided here.
Other indicators cited by NAHB point to continued confidence among remodelers. The association’s Remodeling Market Index (RMI), a measure of sector confidence, had remained above 60 for the year leading up to the report. This confidence measure is separate from the SPR’s estimate of spending: a relatively firm index does not mean spending grew in every state or that the latest quarter was strong.
NAHB also reported that there were 128,000 remodeling firms at the start of 2025, compared with 69,000 in 2000. The figures show the expansion in the number of firms over that period, but they do not by themselves establish how much each firm earns or how activity changed during Q2 2026.
State-Level Detail Remains Limited
The report summary gives the number of states with increases and declines and the overall average, but it does not provide individual state growth rates, dollar amounts or project counts. It is not possible from those figures alone to gauge the size of each state’s change or how much the gains and declines offset one another.
The source attributes flat spending to rising construction costs and weak consumer sentiment through Pike’s assessment, but it does not quantify how much either factor affected activity. It also does not establish whether the Q2 pattern continued into later quarters. The RMI’s level above 60 is a confidence measure, not a forecast guaranteeing future spending growth.
Next Quarterly Remodeling Estimates
The next updates to watch are later quarterly releases of the State Projections of Remodeling and changes in the Remodeling Market Index. Those measures can show whether the near-even state split persists, whether larger markets begin to record broader gains, and whether confidence continues to align with actual spending estimates.
NAHB expects remodeling activity to grow in the years ahead, citing home-equity gains and projects that help homeowners age in place. That is the association’s outlook; the Q2 figures establish only that average state growth was flat for that quarter. The report does not specify a date for the next release or provide a numerical projection for subsequent quarters.
Key Questions
Was remodeling spending up or down in Q2 2026?
NAHB’s State Projections of Remodeling put the average growth rate across states at 0.0%. Spending declined in 26 states and increased in 24, so the national average masks differences among states.
Which large remodeling markets recorded growth?
Of the 10 states with the largest remodeling market shares, North Carolina and Illinois were the only ones the report said recorded growth in the second quarter.
What does the NAHB state projection measure?
The State Projections of Remodeling provides quarterly estimates of state remodeling spending, market share and changes in spending. NAHB says its model uses national home-improvement spending data, state-level indicators and its annual state remodeling forecast.
Why does NAHB say spending was flat?
NAHB remodelers chairman Elliott Pike cited rising construction costs and weak consumer sentiment as pressures on projects. The report does not quantify the effect of either factor separately.
Does the report predict remodeling will keep growing?
NAHB expects longer-term growth, citing factors such as home-equity gains, an aging housing stock and homeowners choosing to age in place. That is the association’s outlook; the Q2 2026 estimate itself showed flat average growth, not a guarantee of future gains.
Source: hardwareretailing.com
